Running to Stand Still

The cornerstone of Howard Dean's tenure as Chairman of the Democratic National Committee has been the 50-State Strategy: run against the Republicans in every race, all the way down to local school board elections. It forces the Republicans to expend their increasingly scarce manpower and cash resources on supposedly "safe" seats, and allows the Democrats to exploit unexpected opportunities.

A good way to tell whether the 50-State Strategy is working is to survey races for the U.S. House of Representatives. This is the highest level at which the parties make strategic decisions on whether or not to field challenges to incumbents.

In the 2008 House races, a total of 56 incumbents ran unopposed by the other major party: 42 Democrats and 14 Republicans. The state-by-state breakdown looks like this:

Alabama
1 – Bonner (R)
6 – Bachus (R)
7 – Davis (D)

Arkansas
1 – Berry (D)
2 – Snyder (D)
3 – Boozman (R)
4 – Ross (D)

California
18 – Cardoza (D)
19 – Radanovich (R)
22 – McCarthy (R)
28 – Berman (D)
30 – Waxman (D)
31 – Becerra (D)
32 – Solis (D)
37 – Richardson (D)
38 – Napolitano (D)

Florida
3 – Brown (D)
17 – Meek (D)
20 – Wasserman Shultz (D)

Georgia
4 – Johnson (D)
5 – Lewis (D)

Illinois
17 – Hare (D)

Kentucky
5- Rogers (R)

Louisiana
3 – Melancon (D)
5 – Alexander (R)

Massachusetts
2 – Neal (D)
3 – McGovern (D)
5 – Tsongas (D)
8 – Capuano (D)
9 – Lynch (D)
10 – Delahunt (D)

Michigan
14 – Conyers (D)

Missouri
1 – Clay (D)

New Jersey
10 – Payne (D)

New York
6 – Meeks (D)
9 – Weiner (D)

Oregon
1 – Wu (D)
4 – DeFazio (D)

Pennsylvania
14 – Doyle (D)

Tennessee
6 – Gordon (D)
8 – Tanner (D)
9 – Cohen (D)

Texas
1 – Gohmert (R)
2 – Poe (R)
5 – Hensarling (R)
9 – Green (D)
11 – Conaway (R)
14 – Paul (R)
16 – Reyes (D)
21 – Smith (R)

Vermont
1 – Welch (D)

Virginia
3 – Scott (D)
9 – Boucher (D)

West Virginia
1 – Mollohan (D)

Wisconsin
4 – Moore (D)
5 – Sensenbrenner (R)

The states with the most unopposed incumbents were California, with 9 out of 53 races unopposed; Texas, with 8 out of 32 races unopposed; and Massachusetts, with 6 out of 10 races unopposed.

The states with the highest ratio of unopposed races were Arkansas, with 4 out of 4 races unopposed (100%); Vermont, with 1 out of 1 races unopposed (100%); and Massachusetts, with 6 out of 10 races unopposed (60%).

Yeah, it looks like the 50-State Strategy is working just fine.